Space weather could wreak havoc in gagdet-driven world (AFP)

WASHINGTON (AFP) – The Earth just dodged a solar bullet. But it won't be the last. Experts say a geomagnetic storm, sparked by a massive solar eruption similar to the one that flared toward the Earth on Tuesday, is bound to strike again, and the next one could wreak more havoc than the world has ever seen.

Modern society is increasingly vulnerable to space weather because of our dependence on satellite systems for synchronizing computers, navigational systems, telecommunications networks and other electronic devices.

A potent solar storm could disrupt these technologies, scorch satellites, crash stock markets and cause months-long power outages, experts said Saturday at the American Association for the Advancement of Science's annual meeting.

The situation will only get more dire because the solar cycle is heading into a period of more intense activity in the coming 11 years.

"This is not a matter of if, it is simply a matter of when and how big," said National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration administrator Jane Lubchenco.

"The last time we had a maximum in the solar cycle, about 10 years ago, the world was a very different place. Cell phones are now ubiquitous; they were certainly around (before) but we didn't rely on them for so many different things.

"Many things that we take for granted today are so much more prone to the process of space weather than was the case in the last solar maximum," she continued.

The experts admitted that currently, little that can be done to predict such a storm, much less shield the world's electrical grid by doing anything other than shutting off power to some of the vulnerable areas until the danger passes.

"Please don't panic," said Stephan Lechner, director of the European Commission Joint Research Center. "Overreaction will make the situation worse."

The root of the world's vulnerability in the modern age is due to global positioning systems, or GPS devices, that provide navigational help but also serve as time synchronizers for computer networks and electronic equipment.

"GPS helped and created a new dependency," said Lechner, noting that the technology's influence extends to aerospace and defense, digital broadcast, financial services and government agencies.

In Europe alone, there are 200 separate telecommunication operators and "nothing is standardized," he said.

"We are far from understanding all the implications here."

World governments are rushing to develop strategies for cooperation and information sharing ahead of the next anticipated storm, though forecasters admit they are not sure when that may occur.

"Actually, we cannot tell if there is going to be a big storm six months from now, but we can tell when conditions are ripe for a storm to take place," said the European Space Agency's Juha-Pekka Luntama.

On Tuesday at 0156 GMT, the strongest solar eruption since 2006 sent a torrent of charged plasma particles hurtling toward the Earth at a speed of 560 miles (900 kilometers) per second.

The force of the Class X flash, the most powerful of all solar events, lit up auroras and disrupted some radio communications, but the effects were largely confined to northern latitudes.

"Actually it turned out that we were well protected this time. The magnetic fields were aligned parallel so not much happened," said Luntama.

"In another case, things might have been different."

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Could Indonesia's democracy be Egypt's model? (The Christian Science Monitor)

Jakarta, Indonesia – The similarities between Indonesia a decade ago and Egypt today are striking: a Muslim majority, a popular uprising, and the ouster of a long-running strongman. Indonesia's strides after driving Suharto out of power in 1998 make it a potential model for Egypt, which is trying to build a post-Mubarak nation.

Many have praised Indonesia for its swift transition from a period of domestic upheaval to a state that boasts Southeast Asia's largest economy, as well as a vibrant media and civil society that has twice participated in open elections. The international community has also praised Indonesia's success in cracking down on terrorism.

But accountability remains weak, illustrated by a web of corruption trials in which suspects have been acquitted or sentenced to short jail terms. Despite economic growth of more than 6 percent last year, the wealth gap has barely budged, and recent attacks on religious minorities largely ignored by the police have some worried about growing intolerance.

This nation's struggles in making everyone accountable before the law, as shown in the upcoming trial of Indonesia’s famed hard-line cleric Abu Bakar Bashir, is a reminder of the difficulties in building and maintaining democratic institutions long after the end of authoritarian rule.

IN PICTURES: Exclusive Monitor photos of Egypt's revolution

Bashir case could set precedentBashir faces a litany of charges that include raising funds for a militant training camp in Aceh and sanctioning armed robberies and killings in support of holy war. After escaping convictions in his previous two trials – earning him the moniker the "Teflon Terrorist" – Bashir now faces a dossier of evidence that allegedly ties him to the camp in Aceh, including testimony from his inner circle.

Observers say prosecutors only have to make the charges stick on one count to secure a guilty verdict and provide a milestone for Indonesian democracy.

“Of course, the more charges they get to stick, and the more damning, the better,” says Greg Fealy, a professor of Indonesian politics at Australian National University. Some Islamist politicians remain skeptical about Bashir’s support for terrorist activities, but Professor Fealy says a conviction would put an end to such doubts.

“It could be a precedent for going after a lot of other firebrand clerics that are deliberately inciting people to violence,” says Sidney Jones, a senior analyst focused on terrorism issues at the International Crisis Group and leading authority on Islamist militants in Indonesia.

RELATED: Delay in trial of Indonesian cleric Bashir raises worry about antiterrorism efforts

Embattled reputation for pluralismBut Ms. Jones remains wary of pinning too much importance on the aging cleric’s trial. Long considered the spiritual leader of Jemaah Islamiyah, a regional militant network bent on installing Islamic rule across Southeast Asia, Bashir has lost some of his support in recent years, as militant cells have morphed into a loose connection of small groups.

Terrorism, however, is only one form of extremism, and Jones worries that the government has foundered on addressing lesser acts of violence, such as words that lead directly to assault.

“There is no firm guidance from the state on how to protect its citizens,” says Syafi’i Anwar, the head of the International Center for Islam and Pluralism, a network of progressive Muslim activists. Mr. Anwar says the president is losing his grip on controlling radical groups – and that makes it increasingly difficult to defend Indonesia’s reputation for pluralism.

Indonesia's past in perspectiveDespite current concerns about democratic backtracking, Jones says it is important to keep Indonesia’s past in perspective. “It’s because Indonesia has recovered some basic liberties that we can criticize the government for failing to act,” she says.

The takeaway for Egypt?

“Make all the reforms you can while the spirit for reforms is still high; get the military out of politics quickly, and lift all Draconian decrees,” says Jones. And do one thing Indonesia did not do, she adds – ensure that everyone, including police and other minorities, has an equal share in democracy.

IN PICTURES: Exclusive Monitor photos of Egypt's revolution

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Study: Eating more fiber could mean longer life (AP)

By CARLA K. JOHNSON, AP Medical Writer Carla K. Johnson, Ap Medical Writer – Mon Feb 14, 4:35 pm ET

CHICAGO – Eat more fiber and you just may live longer.

That's the message from the largest study of its kind to find a link between high-fiber diets and lower risks of death not only from heart disease, but from infectious and respiratory illnesses as well.

The government study also ties fiber with a lower risk of cancer deaths in men, but not women, possibly because men are more likely to die from cancers related to diet, like cancers of the esophagus. And it finds the overall benefit to be strongest for diets high in fiber from grains.

Most Americans aren't getting enough roughage in their diets. The average American eats only about 15 grams of fiber each day, much less than the current daily recommendation of 25 grams for women and 38 grams for men, or 14 grams per 1,000 calories. For example, a slice of whole wheat bread contains 2 to 4 grams of fiber.

In the new study, the people who met the guidelines were less likely to die during a nine-year follow-up period.

The men and women who ate the highest amount of fiber were 22 percent less likely to die from any cause compared to those who ate the lowest amount, said lead author Dr. Yikyung Park of the National Cancer Institute.

The study, appearing in Monday's Archives of Internal Medicine, included more than 388,000 adults, ages 50 to 71, who participated in a diet and health study conducted by the National Institutes of Health and AARP.

They filled out a questionnaire in 1995 or 1996 about their eating habits. It asked them to estimate how often they ate 124 food items. After nine years, more than 31,000 of the participants had died. National records were used to find out who died and the cause of death.

The researchers took into account other risk factors including weight, education level, smoking and health status and still saw lower risks of death in people who ate more fiber.

"The results suggest that the benefits of dietary fiber go beyond heart health," said Dr. Frank Hu of the Harvard School of Public Health, who wasn't involved in the new research but co-authored an editorial in the journal.

The evidence for fiber's benefits has been strongest in diabetes and heart disease, where it's thought to improve cholesterol levels, blood pressure, inflammation and blood sugar levels. Fiber's benefits also may come from its theorized ability to bind to toxins and move them out of the body quicker. High-fiber diets can promote weight loss by making people feel full, which has its own health-promoting effects.

However it works, fiber may offer a prevention benefit against killers like pneumonia and flu, the new study suggests. The cancer benefit may have shown up only in the men because they're more likely than women to die from cancers related to diet, Park said.

Fiber is found in fruits, vegetables and beans. But fiber from grains was most strongly tied to the lowered risk in the study.

"That's what seemed to be driving all these relationships," said Lawrence de Koning of the Harvard School of Public Health, a co-author of the editorial.

Whole grains also contain vitamins and minerals, which may play a role in reducing risk, he said. For that reason, supplements may not be as effective.

"Nothing beats the original food," he said. He suggested substituting whole wheat bread for white bread as a simple way to increase fiber from grains.

What does a high-fiber diet look like? A woman who wants to meet the 25 gram guidelines for daily fiber intake could eat one-third cup of bran cereal (9 grams), a half cup of cooked beans (10 grams), a small apple with skin (4 grams) and a half cup of mixed vegetables (4 grams).

To reach 38 grams, a man could eat all that — plus about 23 almonds (4 grams), a baked potato (3 grams), an oat bran muffin (3 grams) and an orange (3 grams).

Experts recommend adding fiber gradually to allow your digestive system time to get used to it.

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Online:

Dietary guidelines: http://www.dietaryguidelines.gov

Archives: http://www.archinternmed.com

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Online:

http://www.dietaryguidelines.gov

http://www.archinternmed.com

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