By Steve Clemons
Pro-democracy protesters celebrated in cities across Egypt on Friday after forcing President Hosni Mubarak to step down. Mubarak, who had announced Thursday night in a televised speech that he would keep his title and give some of his authority to Vice President Omar Suleiman, suddenly handed over power to the military and left Cairo. (Latest developments)
Mubarak's resignation, which ends three decades of authoritarian rule, raises numerous questions about what led to his decision, what happens next and what the transition means. Here are some answers.
What does the change in Egypt mean for the United States?
Mubarak's resignation and the uncertainty facing Egypt are serious issues for American foreign policy. Mubarak's Egypt was a longstanding American ally that cooperated with the United States on a long list of issues, ranging from combating terrorism to assisting U.S. military operations in the Middle East to helping secure shipping lanes to facilitating Arab-Israeli negotiations. The tectonic shift going on in Egypt, and in the broader Middle East, may have dramatic effects on the future price of oil, the extent of American regional influence, Israeli security, and a host of other key questions. With Egypt in a state of transition, the United States might see some of its interests suffer and some remain secure. Whatever ultimately happens in Egypt, the process has only just begun. The fate of America's regional influence and its diplomatic, economic and military ties to the Middle East is a part of that process.
Who is in charge of Egypt now?
Around 11 a.m. EST, Hosni Mubarak, Egypt's president for almost 30 years, resigned. In a 30-second statement, his vice president, Omar Suleiman, announced that the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces would manage the state's affairs. The military now appears to be fully in control of the country. Suleiman, Mubarak's ally, is still part of the governing body but with potentially diminished influence. It is a fluid situation, and how power ultimately will shake out is unclear. The Supreme Council is made up of the heads of the different branches of the military as well as the Minister of Defense and the General Chief of Staff. Defense Minister Mohamed Hussein Tantawi chaired the most recent meeting of the Council in Mubarak's absence.
What happens next? How will the transition work?
What is clear is that a process will begin in which the opposition parties will be involved, though how it will work has not been defined. Much depends on how the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces will structure the tasks ahead. The military already has said it will not accept the legitimacy of the state, meaning it has no intention of maintaining power for the long term. The Army probably will now step back to establish a playbook by which the nation moves to both change laws in the Constitution that have hindered democracy—and set up a process by which new political groups get a role in determining collectively how a fair election needs to be structured.
Where is Mubarak now, and where is he likely to go?
Earlier this morning President Mubarak's presidential plane reportedly left for and landed in Sharm el-Sheikh, the Red Sea resort city in the south of Egypt's Sinai Peninsula. There are some rumors at the moment that he has left the country, but that has not been confirmed. If he has not yet left, it is very possible that he will try to leave Egypt for a safe haven in one of the Gulf States, Europe, or perhaps in the United States, but any nation that accepts Mubarak will have to deal with the anger of the Egyptian public. Mubarak also might have to worry about legal challenges and extradition.
What happened between Mubarak's speech last night and his decision to resign today?
Totalitarian regimes don't fall very neatly and predictably. There were 18 days of pressure that finally produced a resignation, but there was no certainty that Mubarak would in the end give in. Mubarak's ability to stand against the headwinds facing him was impressive on one level. The military most likely had some divisions between those who believed Mubarak should go and those who remained loyal or fearful. This might have been a "soft coup" in which Mubarak was forced by the military to announce the suspension of his presidency. It is important that we did not hear Mubarak resign; we heard Suleiman announce the words that Mubarak refused to utter.
Did the White House play a role in Mubarak's decision to step down?
Yes, the White House mattered but certainly did not play the decisive role. The Egyptian public catalyzed the events that brought Mubarak down. The White House defined the core principles that it most cared about—no violence, respecting the right of people to assemble and protest, and calling for meaningful, inclusive transition—and these became the frame for many other key nations and commentators. This principle-driven pressure from the United States made a difference but was not what mattered most.
What will the relationship be between the United States and the interim government and the civilian opposition leaders now?
This is unclear. The military continues to have robust communication with the Pentagon, and the White House and State Department are in increasing communication with representatives of opposition leaders. The future course of this communication is unclear — but United States can be expected to reach out at the appropriate time to a broad array of leaders in Egypt who themselves are committed to democratic principles. The United States will not, however, attempt to select political winners or losers. This would backfire and undermine America's ability to have a healthy relationship based on mutual interests with Egypt's next government.
What will the repercussions be across the Middle East?
Egypt is a major anchor in the Arab world, in the Islamic world, and a key nation of Africa. The effects of this earthquake may be substantial but also hard to predict. The governments in the region that may be most vulnerable immediately might be Jordan, Morocco, and Yemen, but the political and government dynamics in those countries are not the same as that in Egypt. The dynamic we have seen unfold in the Middle East probably is not done unfolding.
Will the protesters leave Tahrir Square?
Tahrir Square probably will remain a heavily populated site for weeks to come, not because of protesters but because of celebrations that the people there on that site changed their history peacefully and powerfully. Some also might remain in Tahrir Square so that the interests of the public remain visible to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces.
Steve Clemons is founder and senior fellow of the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation. He is part of a group of foreign policy experts that the White House has consulted with concerning the situation in Egypt. He also is publisher of The Washington Note.
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