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Friday, February 25, 2011

Republicans question top SEC attorney on Madoff ties (Reuters)

By Sarah N. Lynch Sarah N. Lynch – Fri Feb 25, 10:10 am ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Several key House Republicans are raising questions of ethics about the top attorney at the Securities and Exchange Commission amid allegations that his family's estate received $1.5 million in phony profits from Bernard Madoff's Ponzi scheme.

In a letter to SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro, they ask questions about what SEC General Counsel David Becker knew about his parents' investments with Madoff and whether he recused himself from advising and representing the commission on Madoff matters.

The letter, which was dated February 24 and disclosed publicly on Friday, comes in response to a lawsuit filed against Becker and his brothers by Madoff trustee Irving Picard. The December lawsuit says that Becker's mother's estate received a little over $2 million from Madoff investments, $1.5 million of which constitutes phony profits. Becker and his brothers are the co-executors of their mother's estate. His mother passed away in 2004.

Madoff was arrested in December 2008 after admitting he ran a decades-long, multibillion-dollar swindle, considered the biggest investment fraud in history.

The suit does not allege that Becker or his brothers knew of the fraud. But it seeks to recover the $1.5 million so it can be returned to other harmed investors.

The SEC has said Becker was not involved in his family's finances and that he did not recall any investments made with Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC.

Becker is slated to leave his job with the SEC at the end of this month. He most recently served as general counsel since early 2009, but previously he also worked as general counsel under past SEC Chairmen Arthur Levitt and Harvey Pitt.

In the letter, the Republicans ask about whether Becker was aware in 2002 of the tips the SEC had received about Madoff from Harry Markopolos.

They also ask about his past interactions with Madoff, if any, and whether he provided counsel to the SEC on Madoff matters.

Upon Becker's return to the agency in 2009, they also ask if he informed anyone there about his parents' investments and recused himself on Madoff matters.

The letter was signed by top Republicans on the House Financial Services Committee, which oversees the SEC. The signatories include House Financial Services Chairman Spencer Bachus and Vice Chairman Jeb Hensarling as well as House Financial Services oversight subcommittee chairman Randy Neugebauer and House Financial Services capital markets subcommittee chairman Scott Garrett.

(Reporting by Sarah N. Lynch, editing by Dave Zimmerman)


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SEC market-abuse chief takes trader-based approach (Reuters)

NEW YORK, February 25 (Complinet) – The Securities and Exchange Commission market-abuse unit is using new approaches to in an effort to better identify insider trading and abusive conduct by market professionals.

Unit Chief Daniel Hawke said the SEC is using a trader-based approach to look for patterns across groups of people, such as related trades across different products and markets by a single trader or connected group of traders. The new approach has given the SEC a greater ability to detect relationships among traders, and bring cases against large trading networks.

Daniel Hawke, who is the national unit chief of the market abuse unit in the SEC Division of Enforcement, and director of its Philadelphia regional office, was speaking to a gathering of industry practitioners earlier this month at the SIFMA Compliance and Legal Society in New York.

The market abuse unit is structured to deal with a trend toward more-organized insider trading, Hawke said.

Historically, cases have been one-off or limited in scope, in terms of numbers of securities or traders involved. He characterized insider trading as "very tribal" in nature, involving only a close-knit circle of friends and family members with a high degree of trust among one another.

However, in the last few years, an increasing number of market professionals have been involved in tipping and trading on material non-public information. The establishment of the market-abuse unit in 2010 was in response to this "institutionalization" or "professionalization" of insider trading among market professionals. In addition to taking an issuer-based approach, where monitoring would be focused on a single stock, the market abuse unit is looking at traders and asking what securities are common to them.

The SEC market abuse unit currently consists of a staff of 50 and 2-3 specialists and support staff across eight regional offices and its home office. Ten of the staff are in New York, nine in Washington, with the rest spread between Los Angeles, Denver, Chicago, Philadelphia, San Francisco and Boston. Sanjay Wadhwa, who is deputy of the unit, and assistant regional director of the SEC's New York office, is among those leading the Galleon insider trading case.

RISK-BASED APPROACH

Hawke is in a unique position given that he is both regional director and chief of one of the new specialized enforcement units. He has participated in the restructuring of both the enforcement and Office of Compliance Inspections and Examinations (OCIE) programs.

The SEC is developing stronger risk-assessment capabilities in its enforcement and exams, given that it lacked a robust system to identify risk, or to deploy resources based on risks and emerging trends.

Enforcement director Robert Khuzami and OCIE head Carlo DiFlorio were fully engaged in bringing regional leaders together in a way that improved performance management and accountability at all levels, Hawke said. The regional directors are now better integrated with the SEC national leadership, and regularly talk with one another on national program issues.

Each regional office is now able to see tips, complaints and referrals coming into other regional offices. This is part of the larger SEC system to track incoming tips, and which goes toward having better intelligence-gathering and risk management.

In the division of enforcement, management streamlining also eliminated a tier of management at the branch chief level, which has resulted in a ratio of six staff to one manager, roughly double that of the past.

ENFORCEMENT UNITS

Hawke described the five specialized enforcement units created by the SEC in response to recognition that they needed to develop more specific expertise. The unit scopes were decided after extensive debate and analysis, and they represent 20-30 percent of the enforcement division staff.

-- Asset management group: covers investment advisers, hedge funds, private equity and valuation, has 60 staff attorneys and specialists, is led jointly by Rob Kaplan and Bruce Karpati.

-- Market abuse unit: covers market structure investigations, large scale and organized insider trading, large cap market manipulation, and system platform violations, is led by Hawke and his deputy Sanjay Wadhwa.

-- Structured and new products unit: is led by Kenneth Lench and his deputy Reid Muoio, covering portfolio trading strategies in products such as complex derivatives and financial products, comprises 30 people.

-- Municipal securities and public pensions: is led by Elaine Greenberg in Philadelphia and her Deputy Mark Zehner, and recently conducted the case against State of New Jersey for misrepresentation of public pension liabilities.

-- Foreign corrupt practices: an area in which enforcement made their reputation in 1970s with the 'questionable payments' cases, is led by Cheryl Scarboro and comprises 20 people.

The division of enforcement created the Office of Market Intelligence to collect and analyze information from the public that may have come in to the division. SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro has stated that a new central tips, complaints and referrals system is also being developed. The five specialized units all have interaction with market intelligence office, and it will also work closely with the new whistleblower staff.

SUBPOENAS IN MINUTES

Among the reforms to the division of enforcement's process is the delegation of formal authority by the commission to the director of enforcement and, through the director, to the division's senior officers. The new power allows, sometimes on very short notice, a unit chief like Hawke to approve a formal investigation if there is a need for subpoena power. Thus, if the SEC has examiners at a firm which refuses to produce documents it can issue a formal order "in a few minutes."

The SEC is putting intense focus on its own internal controls, in the same way it expects regulated firms to. Among the controls it has put in place is a system for better tracking Wells notices -- the notices that enforcement staff use to inform individuals and entities that the staff is considering recommending charges to the commission against them.

The Dodd-Frank Act contains a requirement for the SEC to better monitor the use of Wells notices. Staff will now need to decide, within six months of issuing a notice, unless extended, whether to recommend an enforcement action, and firms can expect staff to be more aggressive in completing the Wells process within the six-month period.

NEW EXAMS

Restructuring of the OCIE, the inspections and exams office, began in 2010 and is still continuing, although more it is more decentralized than enforcement. The goal of OCIE's restructuring is to clarify OCIE's mission and develop a more risk-focused program through improved industry compliance, better communications, and new ways to conduct exams. OCIE is seeking to improve its ability to detect and prevent fraud, monitor new and emerging risks, set up a robust risk analysis capability, and inform SEC policy.

Governance of OCIE has been restructured so that it is more inclusive of the agency's regional directors and associate regional directors, who each participate on either OCIE's new executive committee or one of its four steering committees.

OCIE is establishing specialist working groups some of which compliment the subject matter of the division of enforcement's specialized units. They include new and structured products, equity market structure and trading practices, fixed income and municipal securities, microcap fraud, marketing and sales practices. Hawke confirmed that OCIE incorporated planning for hedge fund examinations as it has proceeded with its restructuring, as well as for state examination of investment advisors with under $100 million in assets under management.

A streamlined exam process will also be more efficient in the way examinations are conducted and by incorporating what is learned from the exams into the OCIE's risk assessment process and communicating relevant information within the SEC. This involves better use of information technology by making the process more automated. Hawke acknowledged that "our technology is very outdated" and said improvements would be "very budget dependent."

(This article first appeared in Complinet (www.complinet.com) Complinet, part of ThomsonReuters, is a leading provider of connected risk and compliance information and on-line solutions to the global financial services community.) (Nick Paraskeva is principal of Reg-Room LLC, which provides regulatory information and consultancy. He covers various facets of the banking and securities industry and delivers exclusive analysis through Complinet. He can be contacted at nparaskeva@nyc.rr.com.)


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Rating agencies: SEC rule a hindrance to ABS market (Reuters)

NEW YORK, Feb 25 (IFR) – A U.S. securities regulation enacted last year to combat credit ratings shopping and encourage open and transparent flow of issuers' collateral information to all rating agencies is having the opposite effect, according to securitization specialists.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's Rule 17g-5 was meant to increase openness among rating agencies in the United States, but it has introduced a system so formal and regimented that both raters and issuers are scared to speak frankly about transactions.

"People are so concerned about litigation and risks that the operational review and ratings process has become a lot more complicated," said Rui Pereira, head of U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities at Fitch. "Any questions about a deal must be e-mailed, and sent ahead of time."

Rule 17g-5, which went into effect early last June, demands that credit rating agencies hired to rate structured deals share confidential loan-level arranger-provided information with all other U.S. recognized rating agencies on a password-protected website.

Verbal conversations -- even a quick phone chat or a text message -- must be recorded and documented on the password-protected website.

"Communication is ridiculous," said a senior analyst from another rating agency. "I call an issuer with a question and he says, 'I can't answer that. E-mail that question to me and I'll get back to you.' It was so easy in the past. You just get on the phone to discuss it. With 17g-5, you eventually get the information you want, but it takes the longest way to get there."

The intent was to encourage more equitable flow of information, level the ratings playing field, and promote unsolicited ratings on asset-backed securities transactions.

It hasn't worked. Not one rating agency has issued an unsolicited rating since the SEC rule went into effect.

"Rule 17g-5 has created a cost for issuers, (as well as) inefficiencies in executing transactions in as timely a manner as possible," said John Bella, a managing director of ABS at Fitch. The rule "was put in place to encourage other (rating agencies) to opine, but no one is doing that. It is creating an unnecessary burden."

It is too costly for agencies to offer an unsolicited rating if they are not getting compensated for it, especially for smaller start-up companies. What's more, the new system has delayed the entire issuance process and frustrated agencies that do have the mandate to rate an offering, experts said.

The rating shopping issue was just one target of 17g-5. It was also designed to remedy the cozy relationship between structured finance rating analysts and bank arrangers that existed at the peak of the market, which led to accusations that the rating agencies wrongly helped structure deals.

The raters have long insisted that the interplay between banks and analysts was an "iterative process" that was beneficial to investors in the long run because it allowed free flow of information and, therefore, more accurate assessments.

However, critics said that the agencies instead helped issuers and banks get the best execution on deals, with little regard for the accuracy of ratings. Moreover, issuers were able to shop around for the agency that would put a Triple-A stamp on their transaction, encouraging a competitive race to the bottom between the raters.

(Editing by Leslie Adler)


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Chrysler to file financial updates with SEC (Reuters)

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Chrysler Group LLC, the automaker managed by Fiat SpA (FIA.MI), plans to file reports with the U.S. regulators divulging updates of its business and financial condition, the company said on Friday.

The company filed a Form 10 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday to become a "voluntary filer" with the agency and file annual, quarterly and period reports.

The company said the move was intended to offer more transparency to U.S. and Canadian taxpayers as well as the United Auto Workers' healthcare trust.

Chrysler has been reporting quarterly earnings and has posted its results on its website since April 2010.

The automaker came to the brink of collapse before a government bailout in 2009. It is now led by Sergio Marchionne, who is chief executive of both Chrysler and Fiat.

The company was previously under the ownership of German automaker Daimler AG (DAIGn.DE) and then later, private equity firm Cerberus Capital Management.

"We have not filed a 10-K with the SEC in more than a decade, and we have therefore had to develop our filings from scratch," Chrysler spokesman Gualberto Ranieri said.

The company plans to refinance the debt stemming from its U.S. bailout ahead of a potential initial public offering planned for the second half of this year.

Chrysler said its filing was unrelated to a potential IPO. Ranieri said filing with the SEC allowed the company to be more transparent as part of the terms of its operating agreement created in June 2009 after its bankruptcy.

"We would be filing this Form 10 even if we had no plans to do an IPO," Ranieri said.

(Reporting by Deepa Seetharaman, editing by Matthew Lewis)


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Local governments object to SEC municipal adviser plan (Reuters)

By Sarah N. Lynch Sarah N. Lynch – Fri Feb 25, 11:56 am ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – States, local governments and public pension funds across the United States are objecting to a proposal by U.S. securities regulators that they say could kill volunteer participation on local boards by imposing burdensome requirements.

The plan by the Securities and Exchange Commission would implement a key provision in the Dodd-Frank financial law that for the first time empowers the agency to oversee advisers who offer financial advice to cities, counties and other municipal entities that float public debt or manage public money.

The proposal would require certain firms or people who offer advice to municipal entities on products or the issuance of securities to register with regulators. It would also hold municipal advisers to a fiduciary standard, meaning they would need to act in the best interest of the municipality.

But critics say the SEC's definition of who must register as an adviser is far too broad and could affect regular citizens who volunteer their time to serve on local boards.

So far, the agency has received more than 600 comment letters from cities, states, pension boards, transit authorities, utility boards and other municipal entities.

"The expansive inclusion of board members and other volunteers who express an opinion into the scope of the proposed rule only serves to micromanage local governments and impose duplicative regulatory burdens," wrote the National League of Cities in a letter to the SEC. "These volunteers are not motivated by private gain but by public service and the betterment of their communities."

Another letter from the state treasurer of Massachusetts says the proposal will "have a chilling effect on informed analysis and debate" and "dissuade talented individuals from either serving on boards or actively participating in board matters."

Historically, municipal advisers were not generally subject to SEC regulations. But the financial crisis highlighted problems that can occur when towns are ill-informed about their investments.

The Dodd-Frank law required the SEC to get a head start on registering municipal advisers before most of the other July 2011 deadlines kick in. Last fall the SEC approved a temporary rule so advisers could begin registering and complying with the regulations until a final rule could be adopted.

So far, about 900 advisory firms have filed registration forms with the SEC. More registrations by individual advisers are expected once a permanent regulatory regime is erected. The temporary rule expires in December, which means the SEC has a good amount of time to read through the comments before issuing a final decision.

The Dodd-Frank law automatically exempts municipal employees from qualifying as municipal advisers, but gives the SEC some wiggle room to flesh out the exemption.

The SEC's plan would extend the exemption to include elected officials, including those who are tapped to serve on boards as ex-officio members. But it does not exempt appointed board members from the definition.

Being an appointed board member does not automatically require registration. But critics fear that failing to exempt appointed board members opens the door for problems.

They say, for instance, that failing to exempt appointed board members unfairly targets a select few people and wrongfully confuses decision makers with advisers.

"There is a fundamental misunderstanding of the individual board member's role," the Fire and Police Pension Association of Colorado wrote. "Put quite simply, the board members are advisees, not advisors."

(Reporting by Sarah N. Lynch, editing by Matthew Lewis)


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Global stocks recover after oil price decline (AP)

LONDON – Stocks recovered their poise Friday following the previous day's sharp drop in oil prices on hopes that Saudi Arabia could make up for any shortfall in crude production from Libya.

The catalyst to Thursday's decline in oil prices was the expectation that Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest crude exporter, could pump more oil out to make up for lost supplies from Libya, which is effectively split into two after a popular uprising.

Under normal circumstances, Libya produces about 1.6 million barrels of crude per day, but its output has been heavily affected by the violence that has caused nearly 300 deaths, according to a partial count by Human Rights Watch.

In London, a barrel of Brent crude was up 15 cents at $111.51 a barrel, still $8 or so below its high point on Thursday. Meanwhile, the equivalent New York rate was down 7 cents at $97.23 a barrel, again around $5 down from the previous day's peak.

The knock-on effect on stocks has been positive as investors appeared releived that the recent sharp rise in oil prices has come to a halt, however briefly — the fear is that sky-high oil prices will choke the fragile economic recovery around the world.

In Europe, Germany's DAX closed up 0.8 percent at 7,185.17 while the CAC-40 in Paris rose 1.5 percent to 4,070.38. Britain's FTSE 100 index of leading British shares ended 1.4 percent higher at 6,001.20 after trading resumed following an earlier technical glitch that closed the market for about four hours.

In the U.S., the Dow Jones industrial average was up 0.4 percent at 12,114 around midday New York time while the broader Standard & Poor's 500 futures rose 0.8 percent to 1,316.

Libya was likely to continue to dominate sentiment as the trading week comes to a nervous end.

With reports indicating an escalation in the violence in the capital city of Tripoli, and large parts of the country under the control of opposition groups, there are fears that longtime leader Moammar Gadhafi may be preparing for a bloody showdown.

Autocratic leaders in Tunisia and Egypt have already had to quit this year following massive popular uprisings.

The biggest worry in the markets is not Libya but whether the crisis spreads through the Persian Gulf's bigger energy producers. Already Bahrain's government is facing daily protests and there are fears that Saudi Arabia's royal family may be next in line to face the wrath of its people. The announcement of a massive $36 billion package of benefits earlier this week was seen as an attempt by Saudi King Abdullah to ease popular discontent.

"If the political unrest was to spread to the world's largest oil producer, markets would have to discuss the possibility of a new oil crisis and its consequences for the global economy," said Ashley Davies, an analyst at Commerzbank.

If the crisis spreads there, experts say oil prices could reach $200 a barrel, potentially tipping the world economy back into recession.

The fragility of the global recovery was underlined by the fact that Britain contracted by a greater than anticipated 0.6 percent in the final three months of 2010, while the annualized growth rate in the U.S. for the same period was revised down to 2.8 percent from the initial estimate of 3.2 percent.

As elsewhere, the main focus in the currency markets was on events in Libya and the easing in the oil price from its most elevated levels gave the dollar a lift despite the lower-than-expected U.S. growth figures.

Elsewhere, the euro was 0.4 percent lower at $1.3756 while the dollar fell 0.2 percent to 81.75 yen.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average rose 0.7 percent to close at 10,526.76 and South Korea's Kospi also added 0.7 percent, to 1,963.43. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index jumped 1.8 percent to 23,012.37.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index was virtually unchanged at 2,878.57, and down 0.7 percent for the week, while the Shenzhen Composite Index edged up less than 0.1 percent to 1,280.30 in lackluster trading.

____

Pamela Sampson in Bangkok contributed to this report.


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Global IPOs have best start to year on record (Reuters)

LONDON (Reuters) – Global listings activity has been the highest on record so far this year, with firms raising a total of $24 billion to date, according to Thomson Reuters data, boosted by buoyant stock markets and improved investor interest.

It follows a record quarterly volume of initial public offerings (IPOs) in the final three months of 2010, which saw $122.2 billion raised globally, lifted by the mega floats of Asian insurer AIA Group (1299.HK) and U.S. automaker General Motors (GM.N).

Fundraising activity has been buoyed by relatively strong stock markets, with world equities, measured by the MSCI All-Country World Index (.MIWD00000PUS), hitting 2-1/2 year highs this month despite unrest in the North Africa region.

"Investor appetite for IPOs is effectively leveraged to equity market tone, and we finished 2010 with an exceptionally strong four month window from September to December that continued into early 2011," said Chris Whitman, global co-head of equity capital markets at Deutsche Bank.

"A larger universe of willing buyers then entices a larger universe of aspiring sellers."

Last year pockets of market volatility linked to euro zone sovereign debt worries created windows in which the IPO market, particularly in Europe, effectively closed, with billions of dollars worth of planned listings pulled.

"It's a sign of confidence that businesses which have been holding off in the past, as conditions weren't right, feel there's enough demand at the moment to get their floats away," said Henk Potts, equity strategist at Barclays Wealth.

"Valuations remain attractive and investors believe the equity market is a promising place to invest and therefore demand for those riskier equities has been increasing, and of course that very quickly filters through into a flourishing IPO market."

Although there are still some difficulties in the macro environment, investors are viewing the corporate environment more positively, Potts added.

The $24.3 billion raised globally since the start of January is a 20 percent increase on the same period last year, the data showed. Secondary offerings have also seen a boost, up 23 percent year-on-year to raise $67.7 billion globally.

Asia, which dominated equity capital markets in 2010, has continued to lead the field so far this year, with China accounting for 41 percent of issuance, including wind turbine maker Sinovel Wind's (601558.SS) $1.4 billion listing last month.

Boosted by strong energy and commodity prices, energy and power has been the most active sector, making up 30 percent of fundraising, followed by industrials on 16 percent.

U.S. pipeline company Kinder Morgan (KMI.N) raised around $2.86 billion earlier this month in the largest U.S. energy-related IPO since 1998, upping the size and price of its offering after strong demand.

With several big listings -- including a $3.7 billion offering from U.S. hospital operator HCA Holdings and a $2.4 billion IPO by Denmark's ISS -- currently in the works, and a huge pipeline of deals still to launch, the market shows no signs of slowing.

In particular, Europe is braced for a flurry of stock market listings in the next two months as firms use annual results as launching pads for share sales and hope to complete deals before investors disappear for the Easter break.

"If equity markets continue to be stable-to-higher, IPO activity is poised to continue to intensify," said Whitman.

"There is a good chance that IPO volumes for 2011 will be markedly higher than 2010."

(Editing by Hans Peters)


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TSX surges back above 14,000, led by miners (Reuters)

TORONTO (Reuters) – Toronto's main stock index rose more than 1 percent on Friday, climbing back above the 14,000 mark in a broad rally led by the mining-heavy materials sector.

The rally followed four straight losing sessions on the TSX as investors worried about what impact the unrest in Libya and the Middle East in general might have on the global recovery as oil prices rose.

"The action earlier this week in the markets may now be perceived as an overreaction, so investors are now jumping in with both feet," said Elvis Picardo, an analyst and strategist at Global Securities in Vancouver.

Commodity stocks, which took a drubbing when the market was sliding, made strong gains. First Quantum Minerals rose 3.1 percent to C$116.40, while Silver Wheaton gained 4.89 percent to C$39.86 and Teck Resources was up 3.14 percent at C$54.23.

The Middle East turmoil helped keep gold prices above $1,400 an ounce, but the rise in gold producers was also helped by improving market sentiment, said Barry Schwartz, vice president and portfolio manager at Baskin Financial Services.

"We're seeing lots of dividend increases, lots of confidence, a lot of upbeat conference calls from Canadian CEOs, so that's what the market is focused more on," he said.

Shares of Goldcorp rose 3.49 percent to C$46.00 after the world's second-largest gold miner by market capitalization reported better than expected earnings after market close on Thursday and raised its dividend.

The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index closed up 184.82 points, or 1.33 percent, at 14,052.13. Eight of the index's 10 main groups were higher, with the materials sector up 2.5 percent and the energy group up 1.55 percent.

The TSX was down 0.5 percent for the week, which was shortened by a provincial holiday on Monday.

Energy stocks made gains as the price of oil, the most sensitive commodity to the Middle East unrest, edged higher, erasing losses from earlier in the day when Saudi Arabia said it would increase output to make up for Libyan supply disruptions.

Suncor gained 2.05 percent to C$44.90, while Canadian Natural Resources rose 2.74 percent to 48.35.

Financials rose 0.77 percent, helped by a strong start to bank earnings season.

National Bank closed at an all-time high, up 1.86 percent at C$74.97, while Toronto-Dominion Bank ended the session up 2.03 percent at 80.96 and Bank of Nova Scotia finished 1.1 percent higher at C$60.00.

Fertilizer producers got a lift from a ratings hike from Royal Bank of Canada and steady corn prices. Potash Corp climbed 3.17 percent to C$58.87, while Agrium Inc gained 2.93 percent to C$92.69.

Encana Corp, Canada's largest natural gas producer, agreed to a joint venture at its Jonah natural gas field in Wyoming, its partner, Northwest Natural Gas Co, said on Friday. Encana closed up 0.44 percent at 31.64.

($1=$0.98 Canadian)

(Editing by Rob Wilson)


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Calm returns to European markets ahead of weekend (AFP)

LONDON (AFP) – European stock rose on Friday as some calm returned to global financial markets after a rocky week driven by Middle East fears while London resumed trading after a technical glitch closed the bourse for the morning.

In early afternoon deals, the Paris CAC 40 was up 1.21 percent to 4,058.22 points and Frankfurt's DAX 30 added 0.39 percent to 7,158.27 points.

London's FTSE 100 index of top shares rose 0.86 percent to 5,971.18 points, having reopened at 12H15 GMT following an outage which halted trading for more than four hours.

Markets suffered heavy losses earlier this week as investors flocked to the safe-haven Swiss franc and yen amid violent unrest in Libya that sent oil prices rocketing close to $120 per barrel.

"A little bit of calm descends on the markets," said research director Kathleen Brooks at online trading site Forex.com on Friday.

"After taking a battering this week, risky assets are getting a little respite today. Stocks are higher, the (Swiss franc) and yen are off their highs and the dollar ... is finding support."

In foreign exchange trade, the European single currency edged up to $1.3808 from $1.3797 late Thursday as traders also bet on rising interest rates to combat building inflationary pressures in the eurozone.

London's technical glitch, meanwhile, followed similar outages in both Milan and Paris earlier this week, and comes amid a fast-moving flow of company earnings and economic data against a backdrop of nerves over the unrest in Libya.

"At a time of uncertainty in the markets, where traders are having to keep on their toes with the situation in Libya, the last thing they need is an unexpected halt to trading," City Index analyst Joshua Raymond said.

Britain's economy shrank by a worse-than-expected 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010, official data showed on Friday, hit partly by the impact of harsh wintry weather.

"Gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010, revised down from the previously estimated fall of 0.5 percent," the Office for National Statistics said in statement.

That marked the largest quarterly drop in GDP -- the total value of goods and services produced in the economy -- since the second quarter of 2009.

The sharp contraction followed expansion of 0.7 percent in the third quarter of last year. Market expectations had been for no change to the initial estimate.

On the corporate front, Britain's state-rescued bank Lloyds on Friday posted annual pre-tax profits of £2.2 billion (2.6 billion euros, $3.6 billion), recovering from a steep loss as it slashed bad debts.

International Airlines Group, formed last month via the merger of British Airways and Iberia, posted modest 2010 net profits, shrugging off the impact of strikes and severe weather conditions late in the year.

The results were calculated on a pro-forma basis as if British Airways and Iberia had already been trading as a combined group.


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Wall St rebounds from sell-off, but down for week (Reuters)

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. stocks rose on Friday, bouncing back from a three-day sell-off as oil prices stabilized, but unease over the Libyan rebellion could be enough to keep buying in check.

The S&P 500 lost 1.7 percent for the week, breaking a three-week streak of gains. Friday's bounce followed a late recovery Thursday that showed buyers were ready to support shares after a bout of selling.

Analysts have been calling for a correction in stocks, with the S&P 500 up 25.8 percent since the start of September. Much weaker-than-average volume on Friday cast doubt on stocks' ability to move higher.

"It's going to be a bumpy ride. I don't think it's just one big correction and we're out of it. I think we'll see multiple, small corrections over the next few months before the market can really decide what the end game in the Middle East is," said David Kelly, the chief market strategist for JPMorgan Funds in New York.

Brent crude futures for April rose 78 cents to settle at $112.14 barrel, easing from a 2-1/2 -year high of $119.79 on Thursday after a source said Saudi Arabia raised its oil output following days of bloody unrest in fellow producer Libya.

As stocks rose, the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX (.VIX), Wall Street's fear gauge, dropped 9.9 percent to 19.22, falling below 20 after three days of sharp gains.

The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) gained 61.95 points, or 0.51 percent, to end at 12,130.45. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (.SPX) advanced 13.78 points, or 1.06 percent, to finish at 1,319.88. The Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) rose 43.15 points, or 1.58 percent, to close at 2,781.05.

Volume was a low 7 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE Amex and Nasdaq, well below last year's daily average of 8.47 billion.

For the week, the Dow lost 2.1 percent and the Nasdaq declined 1.9 percent.

WATCHING LIBYA AND OIL

Stock investors have been pressured this week by worries that the turmoil in Libya could spread to other major oil-producing countries, causing gains in energy prices that could become problematic for the economic recovery.

The U.N. Security Council was to meet to discuss sanctions against Libyan leaders who are locked in a bloody battle for survival against a popular uprising.

Late last month, protests in Egypt shook the market, but stocks quickly recovered.

"The market has taken this (unrest in Libya) pretty well" so far, said Jim McDonald, Northern Trust's chief investment strategist in Chicago. Northern Trust has $643.6 billion in assets under management.

"If we see oil prices normalize back down to where they were at the end of the year because of increased stability in the Middle East, that would be constructive to global growth and investors would love that," he said.

McDonald, whose firm is "overweight" on energy shares, said as long as oil prices stay below levels that would force a recession, they are supportive for S&P 500 earnings growth.

Adding to the day's positive tone, an index of consumer sentiment rose in February to its highest level in three years, according to the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

Among top boosts to the Nasdaq were shares of Intel (INTC.O), up 2.7 percent at $21.86. Longbow started coverage of the company with a "buy" rating. A semiconductor index (.SOX) shot up 2.6 percent.

In other company news, Boeing Co (BA.N) shares rose 2.2 percent to $72.30 and led the Dow higher after the U.S. aircraft maker won a $30 billion contract to build 179 U.S. Air Force refueling planes.

Financial and material sectors led the S&P 500's gains, with shares of JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N) up 1.7 percent at $46.68.

Advancing stocks outpaced declining stocks on the NYSE by a ratio of about 4 to 1 on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq.

(Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; Editing by Jan Paschal)


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Stocks recover as crude oil prices stabilize (AP)

NEW YORK – Stocks rose Friday as oil prices stabilized following a recent jump. The escalating turmoil in Libya still left major indexes down about 2 percent for the week.

Oil prices settled at $97.88, down from a high of $103 Thursday but still up 13 percent over the last week. Oil prices have been rising, sending stocks lower, as concerns rose that violence would spread throughout North Africa and the Middle East, affecting oil production for big OPEC producers like Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Those concerns eased late Thursday after the International Energy Agency said the impact was far less than analysts had estimated and that any shortfall could be easily made up by tapping oil reserves in other countries.

Boeing Co. rose 2.2 percent after the Air Force awarded the company a $35 billion contract Thursday, one of the largest ever made by the military, for nearly 200 airborne refueling tankers.

DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. fell 2.8 percent after the entertainment company reported revenue and earnings that were far below what analysts were expecting. Poor box office results from the Will Ferrell movie "Megamind" were partly to blame.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 61.95, or 0.5 percent, to close at 12,130.45. It was the first rise for the Dow after three days of losses.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 13.78, or 1.1 percent, to 1,319.88. The Nasdaq composite rose 43.15, or 1.6 percent, to 2,781.05

All three indexes are still down for the week, largely a result of the fighting in Libya.

Libya is Africa's largest producer of oil but only ranks 15th among the world's oil exporters. Traders have been concerned that fighting could not only threaten Libya's oil production but also spread to other countries in the region such as Saudi Arabia.

Higher oil prices also weigh on the U.S. economy by increasing the costs of moving goods and filling up gas tanks. A sustained $10 increase in the price of oil translates into a 0.2 percent cut in economic growth over 12 months, according to a recent estimate by economists at Goldman Sachs.

Treasurys inched up Friday on reports the economy grew more slowly than first thought in the last three months of 2010. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note edged down to 3.42 percent from 3.46 percent late Thursday.

The Commerce Department said the economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the October-December quarter. That's weaker than the previous estimate of 3.2 percent. In an attempt to close budget gaps, state and local governments have cut spending much more deeply than previously thought.

Despite this week's slide, the S&P 500 is up 2.6 percent in February and 4.9 percent for the year. Stronger earnings from a wide range of companies, including Archer Daniels Midland Co. and Dell Inc., have helped drive stocks higher.

Five stocks rose for every one that fell on the New York Stock Exchange. Consolidated volume was 3.9 billion shares.


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Golf star Lorena Ochoa swings strong in face of Mexico drug war (The Christian Science Monitor)

Mexico City – Nearly a year after retiring as the most celebrated golfer in Mexican history, Lorena Ochoa teed off Wednesday in her first Mayakoba Golf Classic, her star power lending a needed boost to sports events in violence-wracked Mexico.

Hailing from a country where golfers, especially women, were invisible next to soccer icons, the four-time LPGA Player of the Year became the first Mexican golfer to rank No. 1 in the world – and she kept that ranking for three consecutive years while also winning over Mexican fans with her unassuming manner and charity work.

Her tireless promotion of golf in Mexico now has an added advantage: Ms. Ochoa’s participation in Mexico’s only PGA Tour event “provides us with a very powerful tool to show the sense of safety that we have in Cancún,” says Jesús Almaguer, CEO of Cancún’s Tourism Promotion Trust, a corporate ally of the Mayakoba Golf Classic held in nearby Playa del Carmen, near Cancún.

IN PICTURES: Mexico's drug war

The sense of safety that Mr. Almagueris mentions does not exist everywhere. Earlier this month, the Ladies Professional Golf Association (LGPA) dropped April’s Tres María Championship in drug-plagued Morelia, Michoacán, citing the violence there. Shortly thereafter the United States issued a travel alert for Guadalajara, the city hosting LGPA’s Lorena Ochoa Invitational in November. Organizers reportedly said they are monitoring the situation but did not cancel the event.

This year Mexico will host more high-profile international games than it has seen in two decades, experts in the field say, even as drug-related violence spreads to major cities where the events will take place. Ochoa’s presence this week was seen by some as a promotion of these tournaments just as they come under scrutiny about security concerns related to the violent drug war.

Security scrutinized ahead of Pan Am GamesIn October, more than 40 countries from across the Americas will send some 6,500 athletes to Mexico’s second city, Guadalajara, for the Pan American Games. Security has become a hot topic after criminal groups blocked major streets by forcefully commandeering buses and trucks and setting them on fire in early February and later lobbed a grenade at a night club, killing six people.

In reaction, the US Consulate General in Guadalajara prohibited US officials from traveling after dark between the city and its international airport and recommended that US citizens consider similar precautions.

Organizers of the Pan Am Games, which take place every four years, are taking extensive security precautions, securing the athletes’ village with electrified barriers and video cameras. Federal police will patrol the city, which is reportedly requesting that civil protection personnel participate from other countries.

Sports stars fight bad press from drug warAnd just like Ochoa at Mayakoba, celebrities will do their part to promote the Pan Am Games and calm fears, says Hector Lopez Zatarain, a sports marketing consultant working for the Pan Am Games.

Guadalajara’s own Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez of Manchester United and Formula 1 champion Sergio Perez are on the list to campaign for the event. Ochoa, another Guadalajara native, will publicize her upcoming golf tournament, according to Mr. Lopez Zatarain. “They will help to promote the city as a safe city, as a nice place to visit,” he says.

The FIFA Under 17 World Cup will also hold games in Guadalajara, playing in June and July in seven Mexican cities, including troubled Morelia and Monterrey.

Killings during tennis' Mexico Open fuel concernsAll the preparation in the world, however, may do little to calm organizers’ jitters, which were on full display this week at the Mexican Open in Acapulco, the largest tournament in Latin America. The men’s Association of Tennis Professionals, or ATP, warned against traveling outside hotels and players were advised to leave the resort city right after being eliminated, The Associated Press reported.

"We [players] are a bit scared about this and we're trying to decide what to do," said Argentine athlete David Nalbandian.

This past weekend 12 taxi drivers and passengers were gunned down in Acapulco, local media said, just before the tournament opened Monday. Last month 15 headless bodies were scattered outside a mall.

Acapulco spring break reservations have since plummeted to 1,000, down from 9,000 last year, the Mexican daily El Universal reported, saying that other violent beach towns in Sinaloa and Sonora have taken major hits this year.

Calmer resorts like Cancún have not yet witnessed a drop in tourism, says Almaguer, the tourism promoter. And many hope that Ochoa's noted swing at the pro-am portion of the Mayakoba Golf Classic from Feb. 23-27 will help keep tourism strong.

"What she's done for golf in Mexico could never be repeated," golfing great Greg Norman said Tuesday before the tournament began. "She's been a great ambassador for the game of golf. She's represented her country as well as I've seen anybody represent their country."

Tournament Director Larson Segerdahl agreed. "Not only does she represent the very best in the game of golf but she represents the very best of Mexico," he said in a statement.

IN PICTURES: Mexico's drug war


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Conservatives face election charges (Reuters)

OTTAWA (Reuters) – In an embarrassing development for the Conservative government, four senior party officials have been charged with violating financing rules during the election campaign that brought it to power in 2006.

The Commissioner of Canada Elections, the nonpartisan officer who is responsible for ensuring compliance with federal election rules, is also bringing charges against the Conservative Party itself.

The news broke ahead of what many political observers expect will be an election early this year. The minority government needs the backing of at least one opposition party to pass key legislation, such as next month's budget, and that is far from certain. Should the budget be defeated, a new election would be called immediately.

Polls indicate the Conservatives would retain power if an election were held now, albeit with another minority.

Elections Canada, the overall body supervising federal elections, said in a statement on Friday the four officials had willfully broken the $18.3 million spending limit placed on political parties during federal campaigns.

The agency contends the party had illegally assigned national advertising expenditures to local candidates, who have their own separate campaign spending accounts. In 2008, police raided Conservative headquarters looking for evidence.

In a civil case last year regarding these advertising expenditures, the Federal Court ruled that the local Conservative candidates had not broken election financing rules, but Elections Canada is appealing the ruling.

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, asked about the story in a news conference in Halifax, played down what he termed "administrative charges."

Querying why the Conservatives had been singled out, he said: "Our party followed the same steps as the other political parties."

In fact, anyone found guilty of the latest charges could face jail time. The current charges are being laid under the Canada Elections Act, and the first court hearing will be on March 18.

"They don't fall under the criminal code, but they are certainly not 'administrative'," said Dan Brien, spokesman for the Public Prosecution Service of Canada.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper has since appointed to the Senate two of the four campaign officials who were named on Friday.

The Liberal Party said the charges were the latest sign of scandal in a government that won power promising to be more accountable.

"This is a million-dollar scam. It's not small potatoes," Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff charged in a news conference on a campaign-style swing he was making in the Toronto area.

($1=$0.98 Canadian)

(Reporting by David Ljunggren and Randall Palmer; editing by Rob Wilson)


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Ivorian rebels seize town (Reuters)

By Loucoumane Coulibaly and Charles Bamba Loucoumane Coulibaly And Charles Bamba – Fri Feb 25, 12:49 pm ET

ABIDJAN/BOUAKE, Ivory Coast (Reuters) – Rebels controlling northern Ivory Coast have seized a town in government territory and said on Friday they were still advancing, raising the prospects of a return to open war.

Loyalists of Laurent Gbagbo, clinging to power after an election most of the world says he lost, confirmed the fall of Zouan-Hounien in an overnight attack and said they would fight to take it back.

"We're in the process of re-organizing ourselves," Yao Yao, head of operations of the pro-Gbagbo Front for the Liberation of the Greater West militia told Reuters by phone from the region.

The small, remote town lies in western Ivory Coast near the forested border with Liberia and is not on a key axis, but the fighting there marks a major escalation.

United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon warned that clashes this week in the main city, Abidjan, and in the west have taken the world's top cocoa grower closer to the brink of a new civil war.

Rebel spokesman Ouattara Seydou said the New Forces had been attacked from Zouan-Hounien and were moving south to another town held by Gbagbo loyalists.

Ivory Coast's spiral back toward a war fueled by ethnic animosities follows an election last November which Gbagbo's rival Alassane Ouattara is almost universally recognized to have won.

Gbagbo, in power for more than a decade, has refused to leave the presidency of once prosperous Ivory Coast, which has been split between north and south since a 2002-03 war.

He has so far retained the support of most of the armed forces and, in Abidjan, can also rely on the "Young Patriots," often violent youth supporters who erected roadblocks and set fire to buses and taxis on Friday.

U.N. WARNING

Their leader Charles Ble Goude on Friday called on people to set up "self-defense" units to protect themselves from the rebels, and ordered them to block U.N. peacekeepers, who are protecting Ouattara in a lagoon-side hotel.

Any such move risks pitting U.N. peacekeepers against unarmed but hostile civilians. In a statement issued by his spokesperson, Ban Ki-moon called for restraint on both sides while African Union mediators try to resolve the crisis.

Diplomacy has made no headway so far.

The spreading violence has killed more than 300 people according to the United Nations, but diplomats think that figure hugely understated because the military rarely discloses its casualties or civilians killed by soldiers.

The threat to supplies has pushed cocoa futures to their highest in more than 30 years.

Gun battles raged overnight in the Abobo neighborhood of the main city of Abidjan where insurgents, dubbed by local media the "invisible commandos," have risen up against Gbagbo.

"Gun shots were echoing everywhere throughout the night and there was heavy arms fire," said resident Souala Tiemoko as hundreds of people marched along the road out of the district of quarter of a million, salvaging whatever belongings they could.

Gbagbo's spokesman Ahoua Don Mello says the gunmen in Abobo are rebels who have come down from the north. Ouattara's parallel government says they are civilians and army defectors.

Fleeing businesses, and economic sanctions by the European Union and United States aiming to squeeze Gbagbo are fast wrecking the economy of this once prosperous nation.

Ivory Coast's 80,000 barrel per day SIR refinery, a target of Western sanctions, said on Friday it was operating "at a minimum" and is struggling to secure crude oil.

The U.N. refugee agency said it had reports that the number of people crossing into neighboring Liberia had jumped from around 100 per day to 5,000 after the latest clashes in western Ivory Coast.

(Additional reporting by Ange Aboa, Luc Gnago and Tim Cocks; writing by David Lewis and Tim Cocks; Editing by Matthew Tostevin)


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Learn to Love The Revolution (Time.com)

There's no need to panic.

Revolutions are messy affairs. They don't follow the easy logic of middle-school textbooks. Hostilities in the American Revolution broke out a year before the Declaration of Independence, and the Constitution was not ratified until nearly seven years after the decisive battle at Yorktown. In two years starting in 1974, Portugal went from neofascism to army rule to something like a communist putsch and then to liberal democracy, where, happily, it has stayed. (Along the way, events in that little country made the end of white rule in South Africa and Rhodesia inevitable. That's another thing about revolutions: their reverberations often surprise.) The Philippines got rid of Ferdinand Marcos in 1986 but is still groping toward a system of government that is both effective and democratic. (See TIME's photo-essay "Scenes from the Unrest in Libya.")

In the 10 weeks since demonstrations began in Tunisia, the Arab Middle East has been messiness personified. We have seen the relatively swift and peaceful ouster of the regime in Tunisia; an 18-day standoff marked by peaceful mass protests and sporadic regime resistance before the departure of President Hosni Mubarak in Egypt; demonstrations for constitutional reform combatted by deadly force, followed by negotiations in Bahrain; and most recently, the outbreak of violence bordering on civil war in Libya. And this catalog of the Arab world's democratic winter doesn't include the protests elsewhere, against everyone from a classic big man in Yemen to hereditary monarchs in Morocco and Jordan. So what can we learn from the region's revolutions - and those that went before them?

1. Provide, Provide, Provide
The key word for thinking about the Middle East today, says Eugene Rogan, director of the Middle East Center at Oxford University's St. Antony's College, is provision. Faced with the demands of a rapidly growing population of young people increasingly resentful of dynastic rule and increasingly linked to the outside world and one another by technology - and hence (and this is the key point) able to benchmark their situation against those elsewhere - regimes throughout the region have not done enough to provide sufficient jobs, education, housing, dignity. "Failure to provide," says Rogan, "is the most glaring source of tension. That's the constant." (See pictures of the rule of Colonel Gaddafi.)

Just as constant is the baseline demand of the protesters. It is quite simple: in the chant from the streets, Ishaab ureed isqat al-nizam, or "the people want the fall of the regime." But while those seeking reform in the Arab Middle East share much in the way of both grievance and objective, they also have significant differences. A region stretching from the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean is not homogeneous. Egypt has more than 80 million people; Bahrain around 1 million. Some nations, like Libya, have abundant oil and gas reserves; others, like Yemen, have little hydrocarbon wealth. (See exclusive photos of the crackdown in Bahrain.)

2. No Two Places Are the Same
No revolution is a perfect analogy for any other. Each nation in the Middle East has been colored in its own way by its history of colonial rule. Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia are francophone; Libya has good relations with Italy, its former colonial master; Jordan was once effectively a British protectorate. Egypt receives enormous quantities of U.S. aid, and the leaders of its armed forces have close ties with their counterparts in the Pentagon. That combination gives U.S. interests a salience in Egypt that they do not have in many other nations in the region.

As the revolutions play out, memories, resentments and social fractures specific to each country will shape their outcome. Egypt, for example, was long the natural leader of the Arab world. Humiliated by its decline in standing (this is a nation that once led the nonaligned movement), many Egyptians would doubtless like to see their country regain its place and revive the sense of cultural and political dynamism that elements within their society demonstrated after World War I and again after Gamal Nasser and his colleagues overturned the monarchy in 1952. In no other Arab nation is the desire to retrieve lost stature likely to be so significant. (Comment on this story.)

Elsewhere, religion may shape what happens next. In Bahrain, the crowds have chanted "Not Sunni, not Shi'ite. Bahraini." But in a nation where a Sunni minority and royal family rule over a much poorer Shi'ite majority, sectarian issues could easily muddle demands for constitutional reform. Syria has its own fractures. The Assad family, which has ruled the country since 1970, is from the small Alawite Islamic sect - this in a Sunni-majority nation whose Islamists remember the way the regime bloodily crushed the Muslim Brotherhood in the 1980s. The government of Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen is threatened by two insurgencies - and the armed members of the local affiliate of al-Qaeda. Sudan is split between a Muslim, Arab north (whose members rule the country) and an African, Christian and oil-rich south that has just voted overwhelmingly to secede. Jordan is home to Palestinians who hail from west of the river and those whose origin is in the deserts to the east.

See TIME's special report "The Middle East in Revolt."

See TIME's photo-essay "Mass Demonstrations in Egypt."

Economic issues, too, will manifest themselves in different ways in different places. A detestation of corruption is a constant throughout the states in the region that have seen disturbances, and for good reason. But it is likely to be a particularly significant driver of change in Libya. This is a nation whose small population, mineral wealth, cultural history and proximity to rich European markets should long ago have made it an economic powerhouse like one of the Gulf states, but instead it has become a kleptocracy run for the benefit of Muammar Gaddafi, his family and their supporters.

3. Patience Is a Virtue
Given the variety of social and economic circumstances in the Arab world and the rapid devolution from smiling faces in Tunisia to the awful violence in Libya, there is a natural temptation to fear the worst: to see years of instability stretching ahead for the region, instability that, as the U.S. learned on Sept. 11, 2001, can seep beyond the Middle East's borders. (See 10 autocrats in trouble.)

The wiser counsel, surely, is patience. During the European revolutions of 1989, it was common to look to the Middle East and wonder why it seemed immune to the democratic wave. But if anything has been abundantly proved in the past month, it is that there is no "Arab exception," no iron rule that specifies that the desires that motivate human society anywhere - a right to choose your rulers, a hope that your children will lead better lives than you, a search for prosperity and happiness - are somehow absent from the Middle East. Why on earth should they be?

That does not mean that the postrevolutionary dispensation in the region will be happy everywhere. Though romantics want revolutions to have charismatic leaders, successful ones channel the revolutionary instinct into habits of effective government through institutions that have a degree of popular legitimacy. (Lucky Poland, to have had both a political organization - Solidarity - and a church hierarchy with such legitimacy in 1989.) Where such institutions do not exist, troubles brew. Russia after 1990 was a country with little organized political opposition and a compromised church and army. Little wonder that oligarchs, criminals and veterans of the Soviet security services rushed to fill the vacuum. (See a brief history of People Power.)

4. Institutions Really Matter
Institutional arrangements are important in the middle East precisely because of the nature of the revolutionary transformation. Organized and brave the young people who have driven change may be, but a crowd in Tahrir Square cannot govern Egypt, nor can a Facebook page or Twitter account - at least not yet. More is needed. Though they may have been hobbled by years of autocracy, Egypt and Tunisia have parliaments, political parties, judges and lawyers, labor unions and a press whose members want to do what free journalists do elsewhere. All of that augurs well for the chance of building systems of governance that are both effective and - just as important - accountable to the people.

The contrast with Libya and Yemen could hardly be more striking. In Gaddafi's madness, Libya has been rendered almost devoid of the appurtenances of state power. (It is officially a Jamahiriya, or "state of the masses.") Yemen has been a unified state only since 1990; poverty-ridden and threatened by regional uprisings, it could face a rocky postrevolutionary trajectory. (See pictures of clashes in Yemen.)

5. Let Them Do It Themselves
Yet even Libya and Yemen have one great thing going for them. When change happens in rough parts of the world, it is easy for those who live in happier lands - such as the U.S. and Europe - to ask condescendingly what they can do to help. And help they surely can - Europe perhaps more than the U.S., since it controls the vital spigots that modulate the flow of people and goods from the Middle East to its most proximate and important market.

But the key thing about the Arab revolution - the reason we can dream that even Libya may turn out fine - is that Arabs are doing it for themselves. This revolution is a regional one, a movement in which each nation's young people have learned tactics, technological fixes and slogans from one another. A local TV channel - al-Jazeera, not the BBC or CNN - has been a principal megaphone. The unplanned system of mutual support that has developed may turn out to have done more to bind the region together than the top-down attempts to create pan-Arabism in the 1950s. This year, says Rogan, "Arabs have been inspired by the example of fellow Arabs. What matters in the Arab world matters to Arabs." For that reason, it matters to us all.

This article originally appeared in the March 7, 2011 issue of TIME.

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India wants fighter jets – but without American baggage (The Christian Science Monitor)

Bangalore, India – An Indian Air Force pilot dressed in a flight suit and sunglasses struts up to an F/A-18 flight simulator and a Boeing salesman engages.

“Your call sign must be Maverick,” says the Boeing agent, referencing "Top Gun," an ‘80s film probably older than this Indian jet jockey. “You look like Tom Cruise."

After a curt “no,” the Indian pilot asks to test out the machine. He lauds the F/A-18's maneuverability and touch-screen cockpit display. It's a far cry from what he currently flies: A Soviet MiG-21 that was outdated even in Maverick’s day. India is looking to buy 126 new fighter jets and Boeing is dogfighting against five international firms to land the deal this year.

IN PICTURES: World's Top 10 Military Spenders

Despite some of the sales tactics on display at the recent Aero India 2011 show in Bangalore, there’s more to selling fighter jets than moving Chevys. Giving "test-drives" and offering value for money is important, but so are international politics. And on that score, US firms have hurdles that European competitors do not.

Much is at stake for the American economy, including a $10 billion-plus sale and an estimated 35,000 new US jobs. Trips by presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush to India have increased US chances of bringing home that bacon. But America’s not-so-humble foreign policies over the years may prove costly in an era of strong European competition in the defense industry.

“The quality of European airplanes today – for that matter the Russians, too – has now reached a point where countries like India really do have choices,” says Ashley Tellis, author of a study on the jet fighter tender for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “In that sense, [US] political choices are more constrained than they were before.”

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India's 'trust deficit' toward AmericaRetired Indian generals and industry analysts say Indian officials have two reservations about buying American.

First, New Delhi worries about relying on US parts given the sanctions Washington imposed in 1998 when India went nuclear. In case of a war with archrival Pakistan – a US strategic ally – would Washington curtail military trade again?

Second, US law requires defense agreements to be signed by any country purchasing certain high-tech military equipment. The US failed during Obama’s visit last year to get Indian sign-off on two such agreements: the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), and the Communication Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMoA).

According to Mr. Tellis, the CISMoA would keep India from transferring sensitive US encryption technology to another country. The BECA, meanwhile, has been misunderstood as a deal that would plot Indian military units on a global grid visible to the US and its partners.

â€Å“The fact of the matter is that this is not true,â€

He and other analysts doubt the defense agreements will be central to Delhi̢۪s decision on the fighters. But the suspicion about the agreements speaks to the lingering distrust of the US.

An Indian defense industry consultant who works with international firms and the Indian military says the Indians will only buy American for systems where there is no good competitor. The trust deficit, he says, comes not just from the 1998 sanctions, but US treatment of other friends.

IN PICTURES: World's Top 10 Military Spenders

Do European firms have less baggage?It’s a point other nations bring up.

Ravit Rudoy, marketing communications manager for Israeli firm Rafael Advanced Defense Systems Ltd., argues the US will be careful to ensure a military balance between India and Pakistan, while that concern is not shared by the one Russian and three European firms also vying for the fighter jet deal.

Tellis sees Europeans as more willing to provide equipment with no questions asked because their firms need foreign sales more to stay afloat. “The European market is so small, so they cannot afford to make their commercial products playthings of geopolitics.”

Representatives of Boeing and Lockheed Martin say international politics are not a hurdle for US firms here. Rick McCrary, Boeing’s lead on the jet fighter bid, points to the “ongoing, improving relationship” between Washington and New Delhi that has now spanned three administrations, both Republican and Democratic.

Obama builds goodwill toward US firmsMuch has changed since 1998, including the signing of a nuclear deal under Mr. Bush and the lifting of export restrictions on Mr. Obama’s recent visit, he adds.

Ramesh Phadke, a retired Indian Air Force officer, agrees that Indian suspicions about the US have diminished in recent years, signaled by some purchases of equipment.

“America maintaining a special relationship with Pakistan has always been a major factor in all decisions India has made with Americans, but it’s also been accepted up to a point,” says Air Commodore Phadke. “That does not mean that India likes it.”

Privately, one US executive who is not authorized to speak argues the defense agreements are a “barrier” for the American bids.

“The playing field isn’t level” with the Europeans, says the executive. “We’re perceived by the Indians as being heavy handed. If you actually read the language of the agreements they are not as intrusive as the Indians are making them out to be…. [But] they want a relationship on an equal footing.”

Obama has played to that desire by endorsing India’s bid for a permanent UN Security Council seat. And Tellis says the administration will continue to be accommodating if a US firm is a chosen as a finalist.

“I think the Obama administration will really do its utmost to make sure that whatever concerns India has both on a political and technical level are assuaged, because the US at this point for economic reasons really wants to see this deal.”

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(Editor's note: The original article misidentified the nationality of firm Rafael Advanced Defense Systems Ltd., as well as the type of Boeing fighter jet at the Aero India 2011 show.)


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World powers struggle to find way to stop Gaddafi (Reuters)

TRIPOLI (Reuters) – World powers struggled to find a way to stop Libyan leader Muammer Gaddafi lashing out at his people as he clings to power in Tripoli, the last big city where an uprising against his rule has yet to take hold.

President Barack Obama signed an order prohibiting transactions related to Libya and blocking property, the first major step to isolate the North African leader, who has used army, police and irregular forces to try to crush the protests.

"By any measure, Muammar Gaddafi's government has violated international norms and common decency and must be held accountable," Obama said in a statement on Friday.

Diplomats at the United Nations said a vote on a draft resolution calling for an arms embargo on Libya as well as travel bans and asset freezes on its leaders might come on Saturday after U.N. chief Ban ki Moon said it could not wait.

Western powers, with whom Gaddafi has exploited Libya's oil after years of diplomatic isolation, have struggled to keep up with the pace of protests that have swept away Western-backed strongmen in neighboring Egypt and Tunisia already this year.

Tripoli's streets were eerily quiet overnight, with portraits of Gaddafi adorning street corners and a few police cars patrolling after a day in which residents said pro-Gaddafi forces fired at and over the heads of protesters in many areas. Up to 25 people were said to have been killed in one area alone.

"Peace is coming back to our country," one of Gaddafi's sons, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, told reporters flown into Libya under close supervision.

"If you hear fireworks don't mistake it for shooting," the 38-year-old London-educated younger Gaddafi said, smiling.

He acknowledged pro-Gaddafi forces had "a problem" with Misrata, Libya's third largest city, and Zawiya, also in the west, where protesters had beaten back counter-attacks by the military but said the army was prepared to negotiate.

"Hopefully there will be no more bloodshed. By tomorrow we will solve this," he said on Friday evening.

The country's second city Benghazi fell to the opposition along with much of eastern Libya earlier in the uprising, which began more than a week ago. Gaddafi vowed to "crush any enemy" on Friday, addressing a crowd of supporters in Tripoli's central Green Square. Residents said government forces had fired when protesters, who had gathered after Friday prayers around the capital, approached.

"They just started shooting people," Ali, a businessman who declined to give his full name, said by telephone. A female resident said her friend had seen police fire at people in another district and had told her 25 people were killed there.

AIRPORT CHAOS

At Tripoli's international airport, thousands of desperate migrant workers besieged the main gate trying to leave the country as police used batons and whips to keep them out.

International diplomats say some 2,000 or more people have been killed. The U.N. Security Council draft, drawn up by Britain and France, said the attacks on civilians in Libya may amount to crimes against humanity.

The White House did not express direct support for the proposal but said it was discussing it with members of the Security Council, including the other four permanent members -- China, Russia, Britain and France.

Charles Ries, director of the Center for Middle East Public Policy at Rand Corporation, said the U.N. resolution was risky.

"The U.N. Security Council is a very risky proposition if, for example, the Chinese were not in favor of voting a resolution, and I don't think the administration feels confident that it has all of those ducks lined up," Ries said.

Washington, which in recent years had a rapprochement with Gaddafi and has several energy companies in Libya still working while other foreign firms have curtailed or suspended operations, announced unilateral sanctions first.

"His legitimacy has been reduced to zero in the eyes of his people," said Obama's spokesman, who also refused to rule out military action.

Gaddafi's own people seemed close to forcing him from power, although it is hard to assess the relative strengths of forces that include irregular units, tribal loyalists and militias backing Gaddafi and regular army units who have now gone over to the opposition.

Other towns were reported by residents to have fallen to the opposition, although Gaddafi retained the defiance he has often displayed against the West over more than four decades.

"We can crush any enemy. We can crush it with the people's will," he urged the crowd of thousands, threatening to open military arsenals to his supporters and tribesmen.

Residents said parts of Tripoli, apparently the last major stronghold of the man who took over Libya as a young colonel in a 1969 military coup, were already beyond his control.

U.S. EMBASSY CLOSES

Washington, having evacuated Americans from Libya after days of difficulties, said it was closing down its embassy. Gaddafi, once branded a "mad dog" by the White House for backing global militants, had in recent years sought cooperation with the West.

Protesters in Zawiyah, an oil refining town on the main coastal highway 50 km (30 miles) west of Tripoli, fought off government forces on several nights, according to witnesses who fled across the Tunisian border at Ras Jdir.

"There are corpses everywhere ... It's a war in the true sense of the word," said Akila Jmaa, who crossed into Tunisia on Friday after traveling from the town.

Prosecutor-general Abdul-Rahman al-Abbar became the latest senior official to resign, telling al Arabiya television he was joining the opposition. Libya's delegations to the Arab League and the United Nations in Geneva also switched sides.

State television said the government was raising wages and food subsidies and ordering special allowances for all families, a late bid to enrol the support of Libya's 6 million citizens.

In the east, ad hoc committees of lawyers, doctors, tribal elders and soldiers appeared to be filling the vacuum left by Gaddafi's government with some success.

There was little sign of the radical Islamists whom Gaddafi has accused of fomenting the unrest.

Army and police in the eastern city of Adjabiya told Al Jazeera they had joined the opposition and a man back from the Western Mountains, some 150 km (90 miles) southwest of Tripoli, said three towns there had shrugged off central control.

Libya supplies 2 percent of the world's oil, the bulk of it from wells and supply terminals in the east. The opposition says it controls nearly all oilfields east of Ras Lanuf.

Industry sources told Reuters that crude oil shipments from Libya, the world's 12th-largest exporter, had all but stopped because of reduced production, a lack of staff at ports and security concerns.

Benchmark Brent oil futures were steady at around $112, after a Saudi assurance that it would replace any shortfall in Libyan output brought prices back from Thursday's peak of nearly $120.

(Additional reporting by Marie-Louise Gumuchian in Rabat, Dina Zayed and Caroline Drees in Cairo, Jeff Mason, Patricia Zengerle, Alister Bull, Andrew Quinn, Paul Eckert, David Morgan and David Lawder in Washington and Luke Baker in Brussels; writing by Philippa Fletcher; editing by Ralph Gowling)


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Protesters say Egypt military uses force on them (Reuters)

CAIRO (Reuters) – Egyptian soldiers fired in the air and used batons in the early hours of Saturday to disperse activists demanding the cabinet appointed by Hosni Mubarak be purged by the country's new military leaders, protesters said.

Thousands had gathered in Cairo's Tahrir Square to celebrate two weeks since Mubarak's removal and remind the country's new rulers, who have promised to guard against "counter revolution" of the people's power.

In the gathering in the epicenter of the uprising against the president, activists urged the military, who had promised there would be "no return to the past" of the Mubarak era, to overhaul the cabinet and install a team of technocrats.

But after midnight, protesters said the military fired in the air, shut off the light from lampposts, and moved in on protesters to force them to leave the square, in an unusual use of military force against protesters since Mubarak's fall.

"Military police used batons and tasers to hit the protesters," Ahmed Bahgat, one of the protesters, told Reuters by telephone. "The military is once again using force. But the protesters have not responded."

Protesters left the main center but many had gathered in surrounding streets, another protester, Mohamed Emad, said. Witnesses said they saw several protesters fall to the ground but it was not clear if they were wounded or how seriously.

"I am one of thousands of people who stood their ground after the army started dispersing the protesters, shooting live bullets into the air to scare them," said protester Ashraf Omar.

TASERS AND STICKS

"They were using tasers and sticks to beat us without any control. I thought things would change. I wanted to give the government a chance but there is no hope with this regime," Omar said. "There is no use."

"I am back on the street. I either live with dignity or I die here."

Protesters say they want the resignation of the government of Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq, the immediate release of political prisoners and the issuing of a general amnesty.

The Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's best organized political group, and others are particularly concerned about the key portfolios of defense, interior, justice and foreign affairs, and want a clean break from Mubarak's old guard.

The military, facing strikes over pay as well as turmoil in Libya, treads a fine line between granting people new freedoms and restoring normal life.

The army officers who moved in on protesters in Tahrir, donned black masks to cover their faces to avoid being identified by protesters, Omar said.

Military busses were parked in the square to take in protesters that were caught, Mohamed Aswany, one protester who had decided to stage a sit-in, told Reuters by telephone.

Protesters were heard yelling and shouting as they were chased down side streets to Tahrir.

"It is a cat and mouse chase between the army and the people," Omar said in dismay. "There is no more unity between the people and the army."

FORMER OFFICIALS DETAINED

In one attempt to appease protesters and show a break with the past, several former ministers and business executives linked to Mubarak's ruling party have come under investigation.

Egypt's public prosecutor referred two former ministers and several prominent businessmen to a criminal court on Thursday on accusations of squandering public funds.

In the latest case, investigators have ordered the detention of former Information Minister Anas el-Fekky for 15 days on charges of profiteering and wasting public funds, the state news agency MENA said on Saturday.

Investigators also ordered the head of the Egyptian Television and Broadcasting Union be detained.

Anti-government protesters had been angered by Fekky because state media, which fell under his charge, had ignored, played down or attacked demonstrations that ousted Mubarak.

Egypt's prosecutor said in its charges against Fekky that he had allocated state television funding to back presidential and parliamentary campaigns for Mubarak and his National Democratic Party, in violation of election laws.

The prosecutor also said Fekky had used excess funding in revamping studios and for channels owned by state television.

The former minister denied the charges, MENA reported, saying that he saw no excess in allocating budgets and that he had made such decisions to maintain competitiveness with other, private channels.

Fekky also denied that state television unfairly helped the campaign for Mubarak or his party:

"Those campaigns spoke of accomplishments in Egypt in general and did not praise one person or one party."

(Additional reporting by Mohamed Abdellah; Writing by Dina Zayed; Editing by Alison Williams)


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IAEA says gets info on possible Iran military work (Reuters)

VIENNA (Reuters) – The U.N. atomic watchdog has received new information regarding allegations that Iran may be seeking to develop a nuclear-armed missile, the agency said in a report voicing deepening concern about the issue.

The confidential document from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) signaled growing frustration at what it sees as Iran's lack of cooperation with a long-running investigation into its disputed nuclear program.

It also underlined Iran's determination to press ahead with sensitive atomic activity despite four rounds of U.N. sanctions since 2006, saying the country had informed the IAEA it would soon start operating a second uranium enrichment plant.

The Islamic Republic had also told the Vienna-based U.N. body of plans to step up efforts to introduce more advanced machines used to enrich uranium, which can have both civilian and military purposes, the report said.

The report looked likely to add to Western suspicions that Iran is secretly bent on building a nuclear weapons capability from its enrichment program, which Tehran denies.

It may also provide the United States and allies with additional arguments for further tightening sanctions on Iran, after talks in December and January failed to make any progress toward resolving the dispute.

The IAEA report, obtained by Reuters Friday, said it remained concerned about possible current activity in Iran to design a nuclear payload.

"Iran is not engaging with the agency in substance on issues concerning the allegation that Iran is developing a nuclear payload for its missile program," it said.

For several years, the IAEA has been investigating Western intelligence reports indicating Iran has coordinated efforts to process uranium, test explosives at high altitude and revamp a ballistic missile cone in a way suitable for a nuclear warhead.

The report said that based on an analysis of "additional information which has come to its attention since August 2008, including new information recently received, there are further concerns which the agency ... needs to clarify with Iran."

NEW CENTRIFUGES PREPARED?

Iran's ambassador to the IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, told Reuters that allegations of military aspects to Iran's nuclear program were "totally fabricated."

Enriched uranium can be used to fuel nuclear power plants, which is Iran's stated aim, or provide material for bombs if processed much further.

In a surprise development, the report said Iran had said it "would have to unload fuel assemblies" from the core of the Russian-built Bushehr reactor, which Iranian officials have previously said would soon start generating electricity.

Iran did not give a reason for its move, which was announced a month after Russia said NATO should investigate a computer virus attack on Bushehr last year, saying the incident could have triggered a nuclear disaster on the scale of Chernobyl.

Security experts say the Stuxnet computer worm may have been a state-sponsored attack on Iran's nuclear program and may have originated in the United States or Israel.

Despite a brief halt of enrichment work in November, Iran's total output of low-enriched uranium rose to reach a total of 3.61 tonnes, from 3.18 tonnes at the end of October, suggesting steady work despite technical woes and possible cyber sabotage.

Experts say that amount could be enough for two bombs if refined much further.

In a further sign that Tehran has no intention of bowing to demands to halt such activity, the report said Iran had told the IAEA earlier this week it planned to begin feeding nuclear material at its second enrichment facility "by this summer."

In September 2009, Iran revealed the existence of the site, Fordow, being built inside a mountain bunker near the central city of Qom after keeping it secret for years.

Iran had also said it planned to install two new centrifuge cascades in a R&D facility at its main enrichment plant at Natanz with more modern machines than the IR-1 model now in use, which is based on a 1970s design and prone to breakdowns.

"They should have a significantly higher enrichment output and a lower failure rate than the IR-1 centrifuge," the Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington-based think-tank, said in an analysis.

(Editing by Alison Williams)


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Amid New Zealand tragedy, a rescue and a wedding (AP)

CHRISTCHURCH, New Zealand – Clutching her groom, she looked like any beaming bride. But Emma Howard's trip down the aisle Friday almost didn't happen. Just 72 hours earlier she was trapped under a building that collapsed in the earthquake.

The 23-year-old was rescued nearly six hours after sending a frantic text to her fiancee, who helped pull her out.

"I got this text ... saying 'It's Emma here. I'm OK and I love you very much," said Chris Greenslade, who was outside his office across town when the disaster struck Tuesday afternoon and raced to find Howard.

Coming around the side of her building, he was horrified to find a tangled pile of metal beams and concrete, with the roof pancaked at a 45-degree angle. "It was honestly the worst thing I've ever felt in my life," he said.

The office tower was destroyed, and Howard was trapped in a tiny cavity between collapsed floors. Greenslade dug through the debris, pulling others free as he tried to reach Howard. He then helped direct the rescue crews that eventually found her.

During the ordeal, Howard said Greenslade kept her calm by sending her reassuring texts.

"His message said, 'I'm with your parents. I love you. There are lots of men trying to get you out,'" she told Associated Press Television News.

The couple was all smiles as they left Christ the King Church on Friday — she in a white strapless dress with a lace bodice and pale pink bow at the back pinned with a cameo brooch, he in a dark suit and purple tie.

Surrounded by family, friends and their wedding party, Howard raised her right hand and pointed to the heavens, smiling exuberantly.

Thoughts of her nuptials, which had been planned for months, raced through her head as she lay for hours pinned on the floor, Howard said.

After her rescue, "I said to people, 'When I was in there I was thinking, I'm meant to be married in three days,'" she said. "And they said to me, 'You still are.'"

"Everybody was determined we were still getting married. And I was like, 'OK, then.'"

Their happy day had its solemn moments, with the pastor recalling that many in this city where at least 123 perished and more than 200 are missing were not so lucky.

It was a twist of fate not lost on the young couple.

While the bridesmaids wore purple dresses as Howard had planned, the groomsmen were in white shirt sleeves; their suits were lost in the temblor. They also lost their cake.

"But everything else has gone to plan. We are just so lucky," Greenslade said.


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Ireland's opposition braced for historic victory (Reuters)

DUBLIN (Reuters) – Ireland's main opposition party was expected to be swept into power on Saturday on a wave of voter anger over the country's economic collapse and resentment at the harsh rescue terms laid down by its European partners.

In the biggest political shake-up since Ireland won independence from Britain in 1921, Enda Kenny's center-right Fine Gael party is expected to replace a decimated Fianna Fail as the dominant force in Irish politics.

Opinion polls carried out before Friday's election showed Fianna Fail, in government for most of the past 79 years, would be the first political victim of Europe's debt crisis while Fine Gael was within shot of an outright majority for the first time.

State broadcaster RTE said voter turnout appeared to be strong with expectations of an increase on the 67 percent turnout recorded at the last election in 2007 when a disastrous property bubble, at the root of the current crisis, peaked.

Manual counting of votes will start at 4 a.m. ET and the broad outline of a new parliament should be known late on Saturday. RTE will have an exit poll at 3 a.m. ET.

Ireland's transformation from economic pin-up to euro zone struggler has electrified the 3 million plus electorate but overall their instincts remain conservative.

Like Fianna Fail, Fine Gael has a pro-business and low-tax ideology and it has pledged to stick to the overall austerity targets laid down by the EU and IMF as a condition of an 85 billion euros bailout package agreed in December.

Kenny, a former teacher and Ireland's longest-serving parliamentarian, is almost certain to be the next prime minister.

Analysts expect he will form a coalition with the center-left Labour party to ensure a large parliamentary majority to navigate the EU/IMF program and avoid the political instability that dogged the dying days of the Fianna Fail administration.

The 59-year-old will face immediate pressure to fulfill an election pledge to renegotiate parts of the bailout and ease some of the burden on an electorate already struggling to make ends meet.

Fine Gael has reversed previous threats to unilaterally impose losses on some senior bondholders in Irish banks, who are protected under the EU/IMF deal, but its "burn the bondholder" rhetoric was enough to prompt a downgrade of some bank debt this month by ratings agency Moody's.

While Ireland's borrowing costs may be reduced as part of a wider EU agreement on resolving the debt crisis next month, Dublin is unlikely to receive a green light to impose losses on senior bondholders in Irish banks due to opposition from the European Central Bank (ECB).

Given that the ECB is keeping Irish banks alive with more than 126 billion euros in emergency funding, Fine Gael, a party in the European Christian Democrat tradition, is unlikely to go against Frankfurt's wishes.

But in return for a "comprehensive package" to deal with Europe's debt crisis, due to be finalized at a March 24-25 summit, Ireland like other euro zone nations will have to swallow concessions and Kenny will have to battle to ringfence Dublin's sacrosanct low rate of corporation tax.

Even with more relaxed borrowing terms, Ireland will still have to get the worst budget deficit in Europe under control by 2015 and if growth falters more cuts may be needed on top of last year's record austerity measures and the 9 billion euros in adjustments penciled in for 2012-2014.

The return of mass emigration -- an estimated 1,000 people are leaving the island every week -- and a disinclination to take the streets has meant Ireland has avoided the kind of mass public protests seen in fellow euro zone struggler Greece.

But hard-left parties, including Sinn Fein, once the political wing of the now-dormant Irish Republican Army (IRA), have seen a surge in support and are expected to make up a noisy minority in the new parliament.


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Anti-government protests in 8 Arab countries (AP)

A look at the anti-government protests in eight Arab countries Friday:

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LIBYA

Militias loyal to ruler Moammar Gadhafi open fire on thousands of protesters in the Libyan capital of Tripoli. One man says gunmen on rooftops and in the streets open fire with automatic weapons and even an anti-aircraft gun. Witnesses report at least four killed, while other say the toll is higher. In the evening, Gadhafi appears before a crowd of more than 1,000 supporters in Tripoli and urges them to fight protesters and "defend the nation." Tripoli is the center of the eroding territory that Gadhafi still controls. The uprising that began Feb. 15 has swept over nearly the entire eastern half of the country, breaking cities there out of his regime's hold.

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IRAQ

Thousands march on government buildings and clash with security forces in cities across Iraq. Twelve people are killed in the largest and most violent anti-government protests in the country since political unrest began spreading in the Arab world. In the capital of Baghdad, demonstrators knock down blast walls and throw rocks. The protests are fueled by anger over corruption, chronic unemployment and shoddy public services from the Shiite-dominated government.

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YEMEN

Security forces open fire on thousands of demonstrators in the southern port city of Aden, wounding at least 19 people, in the latest confrontation with crowds pressing for the U.S.-backed president's ouster. Tens of thousands of protesters march in different parts of the country. President Ali Abdullah Saleh has promised to step down after national elections in 2013, but the demonstrators want him out now.

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EGYPT

Tens of thousands jam Cairo's main square. They are trying to keep up pressure on Egypt's military rulers to carry out reforms and call for the dismissal of holdovers from the regime of ousted President Hosni Mubarak. Demonstrators say they are worried the army is not moving quickly enough on reforms, including repealing emergency laws and releasing political prisoners.

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BAHRAIN

Tens of thousands fill the central square of Bahrain's capital, Manama. Protesters have taken to the streets every day for the past two weeks, asking for sweeping political concessions from the ruling monarch. Security forces make no attempt to halt the marches.

Bahrain is the first Gulf state to be thrown into turmoil by the Arab world's wave of change. The unrest is highly significant for Washington because Bahrain sits at the center of its military framework in the region.

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JORDAN

About 4,000 protesters rally in the capital, Amman, the largest crowd yet in two months of unrest. The leader of Jordan's largest opposition group warns that patience is running out with what he called the government's slow steps toward reform. King Abdullah II, a key U.S. ally in the Middle East, has so far failed to quiet the calls for sweeping political change. The protesters want a bigger say in politics and for the prime minister to be chosen through elections, not by the king.

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TUNISIA

Police in Tunis fired warning shots and tear gas to disperse thousands of anti-government protesters in the center of the capital. Demonstrators massed in front of the Interior Ministry to call for the ouster of the interim government that has run Tunisia since strongman ruler Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was toppled Jan. 14 and fled into exile. Tunisia has been relatively calm since Ben Ali's ouster.

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SAUDI ARABIA

About 300 Shiites protest against the Sunni-led government in a march in the east of the country. They disperse peacefully under the close watch of Saudi security forces. The kingdom had been largely quiet, and its ruler earlier this week promised a massive package of economic aid, including interest-free home loans, in hopes of forestalling unrest.


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